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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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