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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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