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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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