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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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