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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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