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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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