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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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