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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
...
Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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