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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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