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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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