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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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