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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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