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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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