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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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