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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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