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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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