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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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