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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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