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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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