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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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