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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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