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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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