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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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