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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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