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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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