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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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