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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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