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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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