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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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