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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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