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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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