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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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