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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 January 17
FFA SUPRAMAX: Q1 AND Q2 TRADING UP TO $7100 WHILE CAL17 PRINTED $7250 - FIS
Capesize
Sentiment has swung quickly on capes and although there appears to be a very short list for open tonnage in the Atlantic Feb dates appea ...
Monday, 09 January 17
COAL MARKETS WERE UNEXPECTEDLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS OF 2016 - SGX
COALspot.com: Coal markets were unexpectedly one of the strongest performers of 2016, with domestic production restrictions in China as well as sup ...
Monday, 09 January 17
THE INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE SLIDES AFTER THE RECENT RALLY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price slides in January 2017 after the recent rally. The government declared benchmark prices for Indone ...
Friday, 06 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 12.4 MMST; DOWN 18.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.4 million short ton ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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