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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 January 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE KEPT SURPRISINGLY FIRM AND ACTIVE DURING THE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The first week after a slow Christmas break has started off with little activity and softening rates. Not surprisingly, the market is fi ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
COMPARISON OF HONG KONG AND LONDON ARBITRATION - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst London arbitration is the most popular platform for resolution of charterparty disputes, where the parties involved a ...
Wednesday, 04 January 17
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION IS ESTIMATED TO REACH 434 MILLION TONS IN 2016 EXCEEDED THE GOVERNMENT'S INITIAL TARGET
Indonesia's coal production is estimated to reach 434 million tons in 2016 exceeded the government's initial target. The Ministry of Energy ...
Tuesday, 03 January 17
BENGKULU TO IMPOSE TOUGHER REGULATION FOR UNPROCESSED COAL AND MINERALS EXPORTS IN 2017 - MEDIA
Bengkulu provincial government is planning to impose tougher regulation for export of coal and mineral in 2017. According to liputan6 online portal ...
Monday, 02 January 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.62 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER; UP 4.18% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,201 Mil ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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