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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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