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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
Monday, 30 January 17
DUE TO LUNAR YEAR HOLIDAYS, THE FREIGHT MARKET STAYED WEAK
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was down in all segments this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tra ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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