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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 08 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
The challenges the oil market has witnessed since the end of 2014 has resulted in a crisis for the global offshore oil and gas exploration industry ...
Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally comi ...
Monday, 06 February 17
AFTER MONTHS OF GAINS, THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED MONTHLY COAL BENCHMARK PRICE IS STEADILY DROPPING
COALspot.com: Over the past two months, the HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has dropped around 18.06 percent. It sank to $ 83.32 per ton for Februar ...
Monday, 06 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNFALL IN ALL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was declined in all segments week ending 27 January. The fall was cont ...
Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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