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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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