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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodit ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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