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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
Over the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the u ...
Tuesday, 14 March 17
ORDERBOOK-TO-FEET RATIO DECREASING; THE FREIGHT MARKET IMPROVING
It seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has be ...
Monday, 13 March 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 11.563 MILLION TONS COAL IN FEBRUARY 2017; DECLINED 12.19 PERCENT M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,4 ...
Monday, 13 March 17
INDO - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 10 March 17
ESTIMATED U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT WEEK ENDED MARCH 4, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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