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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 March 17
JAPAN'S RENEWED COMMITMENT TO COAL - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, and has long been a major consumer and importer of energy and a leader in energy technology dev ...
Monday, 20 March 17
IS THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY STILL ON TRACK FOR PROFITABILITY IN 2019? - PETER SAND
The industry remains well on target for profitable freight rates in 2019! This relies however, on the projected fleet supply growth rate of 0% in 2 ...
Friday, 17 March 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT VOLUME SLIDES 6.5 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CHINA IMPOSING TOUGHER CONTROLS ON LOW-QUALITY COAL IMPORTS
China is ramping up controls on imports of low-quality coal due to concerns about smog and overcapacity in the world’s top coal consumer, a g ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CAPESIZE: SHOWING STRENGTH; PANAMAX: VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The Atlantic market faced less activity from the USG whereas at the Cont tonnage seemed to tighten up with more cargoes emerging. Despit ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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