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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 March 17
PANAMAX : ACTIVITY IN THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week we were looking at prolonged activity from ECSA, mostly with grain cargoes to Far East and SE Asia, where Ultras to SE Asia fi ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
THE ROLE OF COAL IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY OF THE EU-28: HANS-WILHELM SCHIFFER
The European Union (EU-28) is one of the largest economies in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of €14,635 billion in 2015. It ha ...
Wednesday, 29 March 17
MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
Shipowners will always look for market signals in order to gauge market perception and decide upon which strategy to follow next. And while owners ...
Monday, 27 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO FIRM WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 24 March 17
ADARO INDONESIA'S COAL SALES VOLUME INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 54.1 MILLION TONES IN 2016
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Indonesia, Indonesia’s second largest coal miner’s sales volume increased slightly to 54.1 million tones (Mt) i ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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