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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 10 April 17
THE CAPE INDEX WAS DOWN BY 16.32% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was steady week over a week except for Cape. The cape index was down 16.32 percent week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 07 April 17
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED SPOT COAL PRICES STAGE FIRST INCREASE OF THE YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose slightly in April, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indon ...
Friday, 07 April 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ALMOST FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 06 April 17
PANAMAX: THE MARKET HAS CONTINUED THE FIRM SENTIMENT FROM LAST WEEK IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
With holidays in Asia, the week has started very slow in Pacific. Some fixtures have still been done and levels have remained quite stab ...
Wednesday, 05 April 17
THE AVERAGE SECOND HAND PANAMAXES AND CAPES PRICES FOR A 5-YR OLD VESSEL HAS INCREASED MORE THAN 19% AND 20% RESPECTIVELY M/M - INTERMODAL
With the help of what so far appears to be a very strong grain season together with the fact that imports from China have remained so far robust in ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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