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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 April 17
THE PANAMAX INDEX (BPI) ROSE (12.89%) WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firm, week over a week as all segments show a positive upward trend this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, ...
Monday, 17 April 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 5% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
Thursday, 13 April 17
OPEC OVER-DELIVERS ON OIL CUTS, BUT SEES RIVALS' OUTPUT RISING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $50.32/b in March, representing a decline of 5.7% from the previous month. Crude fut ...
Wednesday, 12 April 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.791 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,688.5 ...
Wednesday, 12 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
The first quarter of 2017 started relatively busy for the ship repair sector, with most of the repair facilities being nearly fully occupied till t ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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