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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 April 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK EXCEPT FOR HANDYSIZE SEGMENT
COALspot.com: The Freight market was fell, week over a week as all segments show a negative downward trend except Handy Size segment this past week ...
Friday, 21 April 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE UP, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
SHIPPING POOLS: DON'T JUST DIVE IN - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping pools can be an attractive option for ship owners and operators, particularly in difficult markets and during periods of economic uncertai ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL ON ITS UPWARD MOMENTUM - ALLIED SHIPPING
Having gone through the first quarter of the year and with the Easter break having no come and gone, it seems as though the dry bulk market is stil ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
CHINA'S IMPORT OF IRON ORE TO PROPEL DRY BULK SHIPPING DEMAND IN 2017 - PETER SAND
China's import of iron ore will continue to be a key driver for the demand growth in 2017 for the dry bulk shipping industry, alongside shippin ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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