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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 April 17
DELTA DUNIA RECORDED $24 MILLION NET PROFIT FOR FIRST QUARTER OF 2017; UP 700% Y/Y
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2017 yesterday. According to the ...
Thursday, 27 April 17
PACIFIC IS SOFTENING WITH MORE TONNAGE OPENING AND LESS COAL ORDERS AROUND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Relatively slow week, with both basins showing signs of cooling down. Although grain cargoes out ECSA and ECCA on Ultras still delivered ...
Wednesday, 26 April 17
IRON ORE PRICES HAVE BEEN ON A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Iron ore prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last month. Prices started the year on a very positive note, surging up to their highest ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
FIONA POUNDS: VALID TENDER OF NOTICE OF READINESS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent English High Court case of MV Arundel Castle1, the Judge ruled that a vessel, that could not immediately pr ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Over the weekend we witnessed a second win over the rising populism that has become present in global politics since last summer, Allied shipping s ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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