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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 May 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS LEVELS WITH DELIVERY CHINA IS TRADING AROUND LOW $6K, TRIP BACK TO CHINA
Supramax
The short week brought weaker rates across all routes. Supras from USG to Japan were fixed around $19-20 k daily and from ECSA to ECI $1 ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MALAYSIA SEEMS AS BIGGEST ADARO COAL IMPORTER IN Q1' 17
COALspot.com: In 1Q17, 30% of Adaro's sales went to Indonesia, the data from unaudited consolidated financial statement shows.
Malaysia ca ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The overall performance of each sector within the edible oil markets has remained poor for the past weeks. Apart from the veg oil exports fro ...
Tuesday, 02 May 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO SLUMP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, as all segments except Handy Size show a negative downward trend.
The Balt ...
Friday, 28 April 17
U.S PRODUCED LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14 million short tons ( ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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