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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - w ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 0.99 PERCENT LESS COAL IN APRIL 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,636.2 ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market slightly up this past week, as BDI and Cape shows a positive trend week over week.
The Baltic Exchange, track ...
Friday, 12 May 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AGAIN WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million short tons ...
Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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