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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 June 17
U.S THE PAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP 4.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 24 May 17
LR MARKET IT SEEMS THAT EARNINGS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the summer season, the Clean Product market appears poised to become more challenging, either on East or West of Suez.
L ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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