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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 June 17
U.S THE PAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP 4.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 24 May 17
LR MARKET IT SEEMS THAT EARNINGS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the summer season, the Clean Product market appears poised to become more challenging, either on East or West of Suez.
L ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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