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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 17
TANKERS WEEKLY MARKET NOTE - ALLIED
It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks on the oil front, with the effectiveness of OPEC’s policy being under debate amongst most traders ...
Monday, 22 May 17
THE SHIPPING INDEX DECLINES AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Freight market again decline this past week, as BDI and all other indexes show a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic E ...
Friday, 19 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SUPRAMAX : COAL TRIPS TO CHINA WITH VESSELS OPEN INDO HAVE BEEN FIXED AROUND $8000
Supramax
Atlantic market has stayed quiet with no substantial developments.
Cont to Med scrap cargoes have concluded around 11k says Fearnle ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SOUTHEAST ASIA CAN ACCELERATE ACHIEVEMENT OF PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS - WCA
Low emissions coal in Asia reduces more CO2 emissions than renewable investment in Western Europe.
Investing in low emissions coal plants in S ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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